Kicking Over My Traces

Job numbers provide no comfort for besieged Democratic incumbents. The best that can be said is that unemployment isn’t dramatically worse. At the end of “Recovery Summer” the economy hasn’t fallen flat on its keister but it remains week-kneed.

Last month’s reported unemployment rate was 9.5%.

From the BLS Employment Situation Summary, just released:

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000).

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (9.8 percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (26.3 percent), whites (8.7 percent), blacks (16.3 percent), and Hispanics (12.0 percent) showed little change in August. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.2 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) declined by 323,000 over the month to 6.2 million. In August, 42.0 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-12.)

In August, the civilian labor force participation rate (64.7 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were essentially unchanged. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 331,000 over the month to 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in August, an increase of 352,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-54,000) in August. Government employment fell by 121,000, reflecting the departure of 114,000 temporary Census 2010 workers from federal government payrolls. Total private employment continued to trend up modestly over the month (+67,000). Since its most recent low in December 2009, private-sector employment has risen by 763,000. (See table B-1.)

Employment in health care increased by 28,000 in August, with the largest gains occurring in ambulatory health care services (+17,000) and hospitals (+9,000). Thus far in 2010, the health care industry has added an average of 20,000 jobs per month, about in line with the average monthly job growth in 2009.

Mining employment rose by 8,000 in August. Since a recent low in October 2009, employment in the industry has increased by 72,000. Support activities for mining has accounted for about three-fourths of the gain.

Manufacturing employment declined by 27,000 over the month. A decline in motor vehicles and parts (-22,000) offset a gain of similar magnitude in July as the industry departed somewhat from its usual layoff and recall pattern for annual retooling.

Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services was up by 17,000. This industry has added 392,000 jobs since a recent employment low in September 2009.

Construction employment was up (+19,000) in August. This change partially reflected the return to payrolls of 10,000 workers who were on strike in July.

Employment in retail trade was about unchanged over the month. A job gain among motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000) was essentially offset by losses in building materials and garden supply stores (-6,000).

Employment in other private-sector industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality, showed little change in August.

Over the month, government employment fell by 121,000, largely reflecting the loss of 114,000 temporary workers hired for Census 2010. The number of temporary Census 2010 workers peaked in May at 564,000 but has declined to 82,000 in August.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged over the month at 34.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees increased by 0.1 hour to 40.2 hours, and factory overtime was up by 0.1 hour. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $22.66 in August. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.7 percent. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $19.08. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from -221,000 to -175,000, and the change for July was revised from -131,000 to -54,000.

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