Super Bowl XLIV may have boosted N’Awlins (Geaux Saints!) but Gallup says there was no boost in consumer spending leading up to the game.
Before the turn of the year, I had expected consumer spending to re-establish an easily recognizable seesaw pattern based on bi-weekly paychecks by the middle or end of January. It’s now the second week of February. A regular seesaw has yet to appear. We see instead an odd three-step: a deep plunge followed by a partial recovery and then a third week at the same level.
Perhaps a “Super Bowl boost” kept spending from falling.
If the odd three-step is sustained, next week’s report will show a drop in spending for this week, to or below $55 in average daily spending. If consumers have to make up for spending last week, the drop could be quite sharp.
I don’t have any good predictions based on the data. The only thing I can do is wait and see.
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